When TrendBible forecast a macro trend, they use part of William Higham’s 4 C’s model, researching what Higham calls the Calculables and Chaotics that will impact life within a specific time period. Identifying what can be predicted and what can’t is an important part of a trend forecaster’s process.
Calculables are events that can be predicted and planned for. Events that are more likely than not to happen, like the next Olympic Games. A Calculable is something that an estimated calculation can be made about. TrendBible never base a whole Macro trend from one Calculable as it would render it unstable and open to higher levels of risk. Instead, they use a methodology that makes a connection between at least 3 different trend drivers across multiple industries. This methodology is called triangulation and ensures our forecasts are robust and maintain their relevance over a longer period of time.
Chaotics are unexpected events with enormous impact, but cannot be planned for, like a pandemic or a war. Chaotics also include low probability, high impact events such as economic, political, or environmental disasters.
Whilst Chaotics can’t be predicted, the outcomes can. Once the event has occurred, a series of scenarios can be forecast as the event cascades out to influence various aspects of life. Chaotics can accelerate a trend or stop it from developing altogether.
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